CORVALLIS, Ore. - Scientists with expertise in climate and its impacts have developed a "consensus statement" that summarizes the likely effects of climate change on the Pacific Northwest. They predict a future with higher temperatures, rising sea levels, diminished streamflows and snowpack, longer fire seasons and many other changes.
Climate change is real, is already under way, is being strongly influenced by human activities, and future effects may be even more dramatic, the report concludes. These changes could profoundly disrupt the Pacific Northwest environment, ecology, economy, agricultural base, forests and other entities.
The potentially catastrophic impacts of climate change also raise a myriad of questions that need to be addressed by further research, the report said, on topics ranging from wind patterns to precipitation changes, ocean dynamics and effects on human health.
The report will assist the work of the Advisory Group on Global Warming appointed by Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski. The advisory group just released a far-reaching set of recommendations on what Oregonians need to do to address climate change, available from the Oregon Department of Energy at www.energy.state.or.us/climate/warming/Draft_Intro.htm. Comments are being accepted until Nov. 15.
The findings in the consensus statement emerged from a meeting sponsored by the Institute for Natural Resources at OSU last June of 65 of the leading experts from the region, in oceanography, forest ecology, climate, marine ecology, fish biology, agriculture and resource economics, and other fields.
These experts were primarily academic scientists from Oregon State University, the University of Oregon, University of Washington, and Lewis and Clark College. The full report is available on the web at http://inr.oregonstate.edu.
Among the findings of the report:
The scientists emphasized that although they are able to make predictions about some likely changes, there are also still many uncertainties. Precipitation is a big unknown. Some models, for instance, predict a modest increase in winter precipitation and decreases in the summer. But large-scale changes in ocean temperature and circulation patterns could yield a Northwest climate that is drier.
It's also unclear exactly how marine and terrestrial ecosystems will respond to these changes, and what human land management changes may take place as it becomes clear that the climate is changing.
Some of the most pressing needs for future research, the study indicated, are in the area of precipitation patterns, coastal ocean winds and associated upwelling, the thresholds for abrupt shifts in climate, and the dynamics of large, long-term changes in ocean and atmosphere interactions.
On a global basis outside the Pacific Northwest, the report made note of many other climatic changes that are underway or anticipated as a result of global warming - shorter duration of ice cover on lakes and rivers, thinner Arctic sea ice, retreat of glaciers, loss of permafrost, longer growing seasons, shifts in plant and animal ranges, bleaching of coral reefs, increase in severe weather events, and other changes.
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Sherm Bloomer, 541-737-4811